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Assessment of climate change variables to inform Ethiopian crop selection

Brent Barker and Zan Rubin

Our project seeks to use 2050 predictions from a global climate model (GCM), specifically the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) model, to benefit Ethiopian agriculturalists in crop selection based on predictions of precipitation and temperature.  The objective is to analyze data from the CCCma model under two different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2 and B2) and produce a map that displays regions of Ethiopia that are predicted to have appreciable changes in precipitation and temperature from current conditions.  The goal is to quantify future precipitation and temperature ranges in order to assist Ethiopian farmers in selecting crops that will be best suited for potentially different conditions due to climate change.

Ethiopian farmers Mandefro Tesfaye (L) and Maru Sisay walk in their wheat field in Abay, north of Addis Ababa, October 21, 2009.

Ethiopian Climate

Ethiopian climate varies according to the different topographical regions. The central plateau has a moderate climate with minimal seasonal temperature variation. The mean minimum during the coldest season is 6° C (43° F ), while the mean maximum rarely exceeds 26° C (79° F ). Temperature variations in the lowlands are much greater, and the heat in the desert and Red Sea coastal areas is extreme, with occasional highs of 60° C (140° F ). Heavy rainfall occurs in most of the country during June, July, and August. The High Plateau also experiences a second, though much milder, rainy season between December and February. Average annual precipitation on the central plateau is roughly 122 cm (48 in). The northern provinces receive less rainfall with average annual precipitation less than 10 cm (4 in). The westernmost region of Ethiopia receives an annual rainfall of nearly 200 cm (80 in). Severe droughts affected the country in 1982–84,1987–88, and 1991.

Ethiopian Agriculture

Ethiopia has a total land area of about 112.3 million hectares. Of this, about 16.4 million hectares are suitable for producing annual and perennial crops. Of the estimated arable land, about 8 million hectares are used annually for rain-fed crops. The country has a population of about 70 million (National Bank of Ethiopia, 1999) with a growth rate of about 3.3%. At the present growth rate, the population is expected to increase to about 129.1 million by the year 2030 (Deressa and Hassan, 2009).

Agriculture remains by far the most important sector in the Ethiopian economy for the following reasons: (1) it directly supports about 85% of the population in terms of employment and livelihood; (2) it contributes about 50% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP); (3) it generates about 88% of the export earnings; and (4) it supplies around 73% of the raw material requirement of agro-based domestic industries. It is also the major source of food for the population and hence the prime contributing sector to food security. In addition, agriculture is expected to play a key role in generating surplus capital to speed up the country’s overall socio-economic development (Deressa and Hassan, 2009).

Climate Models

We used model output from the Global Climate Model (GCM) for the year 2050 from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma).  The development of CGCM2 was developed by G.M. Flato and G.J. Boer along with W.G. Lee and S. Tinis. Two primary scenarios have been used to predict change from current conditions for Ethiopian maximum temperature and annual precipitation.  The scenarios are A2a and B2a from the scenario families used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

A2

The A2 family of scenarios:

• A world of independent, self-reliant nations.

• Rapidly increasing population.

• Regional economic development.

• Slower technological changes and increases in per-capita income.

B2

The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly.

• Continuously increasing population, but less rapidly than in A2.

• Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.

• Intermediate levels of economic development.

• Less rapid technological progress

From IPCC - http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/figspm-5.htm

From CCCma GCM model output (http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/models/cgcm2.shtml).