Conclusion

Our analysis of forest cover loss and population growth in and around Bale Mountains National Park indicates that human population is having a significant impact over a relatively brief time period.  All data analyzed suggests that population growth creates increased demand for natural resources, particularly forest products in the form of wood.   The fact that forest cover has decreased dramatically during the 20th Century, particularly the estimated 14% loss since 1990, suggests that this increase in wood consumption is associated with population growth.  Anecdotal field data reveals an increase in village population in and around the park.  These data also include eyewitness evidence of land use practices of these nearby villagers. 

In accordance with these indicators of forest cover loss as a result of human activity, our analysis of the MODIS land cover data illustrates that this trend is in fact occurring.  From 2001-2004 our maps indicate that forested land is being converted to crop land.  Furthermore, pixel values indicate a clear decline in forest cover, particularly on the fringes of the park; areas most easily accessed by nearby villagers. 

During the time of our study, the best available data suggests that population around the park is rising and forest cover is decreasing, often being transformed for human use.   It is important to keep in mind that our analyses of remotely sensed imagery and population growth numbers were done mutually exclusively.  Because we don’t have quantitative data of land use practice and forest product consumption or specific population data that shows exact population numbers in the nearby villages, we must rely in part on assumptions, trends and anecdotal evidence and cannot empirically conclude that all forest cover loss is a result of human activity.