Mike Steinbeiss and Mark Gorsuch
NR 505: Concepts in GIS
Ethiopia Land Cover Project

Introduction

Ethiopia is an ancient and diverse landscape which has endured as one of the oldest countries in the world.  Renowned for its rugged mountains, Ethiopia is often referred to as the “Roof of Africa.”  Some of the earliest traces of humanity have been found in Ethiopia and it is thought to be a starting point of sorts for the dispersion of humankind around the globe.  For millennia humans have utilized the natural resources of the Ethiopian landscape to survive.  Historically, populations were low enough to sustain the land use practices of humans.  In the 20th Century, however, human population expanded significantly and continues to increase rapidly, placing increased pressure on the land to provide sustenance and warmth. 

Population
Population data in Ethiopia is very difficult to obtain because there is not an official census.  Estimates vary, but most current population data estimate human population at approximately 72-85 million with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, an increase of about 2 million people per year.  With approximately 46% of the nation’s population under the age of 14, Ethiopia can expect population growth to continue indefinitely.  The median age is just under 17 years old, with a life expectancy of 55 years (CIA 2008).  Although each woman bears an average of 6 children, population growth rate estimates must account for high infant mortality rates as well as a relatively high death rate as a result of infectious diseases such as HIV, typhoid and malaria.  
As a result of Ethiopia’s expanding population, the environment has suffered and will likely continue to be degraded unless measures are taken.  The CIA estimates that 10% of the Ethiopian landscape is arable land.  As population expands the remaining forests are being cleared for crops, livestock and wood collection for warmth and cooking.  In some areas the loss of forested land has resulted in unstable slopes and severe erosion.  In addition, the ever-increasing distance to the retreating forest has become prohibitive for fuel collection resulting in people burning dung, which results in nutrient depletion and reduction in overall productivity and in extreme cases desertification. According to one study, from 1990-2005 there was a 1.03% forest change rate per year with a total loss of 14% of forest cover (Mongabay  2006).  Overall forest cover in Ethiopia has dropped from an estimated 40% at the turn of the 20th Century to just over 3% today (Mongabay 2006).

Impact on “Protected Areas”
Despite high poverty levels, Ethiopia has designated approximately 16.4% of the total landscape as “protected areas” of varying degree (IUCN 2003).  The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defines a protected area as “an area of land and/or sea especially dedicated to the protection and maintenance of biological diversity, and of natural and associated cultural resources, and managed through legal or other effective means" (Earth Trends 2003).  Though this is a relatively significant portion of total land area, it does not mean that these areas are immune to degradation.  Regulations in protected areas are generally loose and there is a lack of monetary resources, political interest and technical knowledge to effectively manage and protect these areas.  As a result, many areas designated “protected” are being degraded at very high rates.  This trend is often exacerbated by the rich resources these protected areas possess, particularly fuel in the form of wood.

The Case of Bale Mountains National Park
Established in 1970, Bale Mountains National Park covers about 2,200 square kilometers in Southeast Ethiopia.  It consists of three distinguishable ecoregions:  the Gaysay grasslands in the north, the central Sanetti Plateau and Harenna Forest in the south.  This is an extremely sensitive region, with a relatively large proportion of species endemic to Ethiopia.  It has been suggested that loss of this park would result in more extinctions than the loss of any area of comparable size on earth (UNESCO 2008).  After its creation and demarcation in 1970, the park was never formally gazetted and a management plan was never formulated.  In the past decade, pastoralists, agriculturists and timber users have encroached significantly on the park, transforming and degrading the landscape at an ever-increasing pace.  Settlement within the park is becoming more common, with an area of about 10,000ha inside the park used for agriculture (IBC, 2003) and an estimated livestock population of 168,300 (BMNP 2006).

Deforestation and GIS
Using GIS we aim to illustrate the decrease in forest cover in conjunction with the increase of human settlements in and around Bale Mountains National Park.  As human population in and around the park has increased in the past 20 years, environmental degradation has followed.   The incremental loss of forest cover can be difficult to quantify on the ground if boundaries were not clearly demarcated from the outset.  However, with the use of MODIS Land Cover data and GIS technology, it is possible to identify areas where forest cover has receded and/or been tranformed.. 

In the northern Sinana-Dinsho district there are 24 villages, eight of which are within 10 km of the largest town of Dinsho, which borders the park (Flintan 2000).   These eight villages consist of 2825 households, each numbering between 6-10 people.  Almost all households rely solely upon subsistence farming, livestock and wood collection from the forest for their basic needs.  Although many villagers, when asked, claim to abide by park boundaries and feel the park is overall beneficial, there is plenty of evidence of regular incursions into the park for grazing and wood collection as well as impact by villagers who live within the park, but do not recognize its boundaries (Flintan 2000).  This is just one example of the increasing pressure the park faces.